Asteroid 2024 YR4: Evaluating Earth and Moon Collision Risks, Size, Impact Speed, and NASA's Response

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Evaluating Earth and Moon Collision Risks, Size, Impact Speed, and NASA's Response

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has garnered significant attention due to its potential impact threat in December 2032. Below are detailed answers to common questions regarding this near-Earth object:

1. What is the collision risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 with Earth?

As of February 2025, NASA estimates a 3.1% (approximately 1 in 32) chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) provides a slightly lower estimate of 2.8%. These probabilities have increased from initial assessments due to refined observations.

2. What is asteroid 2024 YR4?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is a near-Earth object first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS survey in Chile. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids, characterized by orbits that cross Earth's path. Due to its size and proximity, it has been classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid.

3. What is the impact risk associated with asteroid 2024 YR4?

While the current impact probability is relatively low, the potential consequences of a collision are significant. If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it could release energy comparable to an 8-megaton TNT explosion, capable of causing extensive local damage. The exact effects would depend on factors such as impact location and angle.

4. What is the size of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Estimates suggest that 2024 YR4 measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, roughly the size of a football field. This size is comparable to the asteroid responsible for the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia, which caused widespread devastation over a large area.

5. What is NASA's involvement with asteroid 2024 YR4?

NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) is actively monitoring 2024 YR4. The agency has been updating impact probability assessments as new data becomes available. Plans are in place to utilize the James Webb Space Telescope for further observations in the coming months to refine the asteroid's trajectory

6. Is there a risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon?

Current analyses indicate a 0.3% probability of 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032. Such an event could create a crater between 500 to 2,000 meters wide on the lunar surface. The potential impact zone ranges from just south of Mare Crisium to the Tycho crater, both visible from Earth.

7. What would be the impact speed of asteroid 2024 YR4?

If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, it is projected to enter the atmosphere at a velocity of approximately 13.89 kilometers per second (about 30,000 mph). This high speed would contribute to the significant energy release upon impact.

It's important to note that impact probabilities are subject to change as more data is collected. Ongoing observations aim to refine these estimates and inform potential mitigation strategies.